I did a bit of number crunching yesterday to try to guess the statuses of the three SUSD races — particularly the tight race in Area 1 but also the races in Area 3 and 4, which at the moment are more lopsided.
This afternoon, I spoke briefly with Registrar of Voters Austin Erdman, who provided some possibly significant new information plus his own method of estimating how many votes might still be uncounted in each of the races.
The news part of this is that yesterday, Erdman gave an estimate of 45,000 uncounted ballots in San Joaquin County. Today, Erdman gave a hard number: 53,356. That gives candidates who are trailing 8,356 more reasons to be hopeful.
Well, not really 8,356, because the SUSD candidates weren’t running countywide. But Erdman said one way to guess the remaining uncounted ballots in each race would be to take the figure 53,356 and divide it by 430 — the number of precincts in the county. This computes to about 124 uncounted ballots per precinct.
In Area 1, where incumbent Gloria Allen leads Monica Hernandez by 40 votes, there are 13 precincts, which calculates to an estimated 1,612 uncounted ballots.
In Area 3, where challenger Kathy Garcia leads incumbent Jose Morales by 426 votes, there are 16 precincts with an estimated 1,984 uncounted ballots.
In Area 4, where challenger Colleen Keenan leads incumbent Angel Jimenez by 400 votes, there are 16 precincts with an equally Orwellian estimate of 1,984 uncounted ballots.
Obviously, the Area 1 race is the most likely to change once all the votes have been counted. Based on the Erdman Formula®, Hernandez would need 51.3 percent of the uncounted ballots to overtake Allen. Morales would need 60.5 percent to pass Garcia. Jimenez would need 60.1 percent to pass Keenan.
If this is becoming tedious, don’t complain too loudly. You could be one of the people sitting in the Registrar’s office counting votes for the next few weeks. It could be up to 28 days after the election before official results are known.