Registrar: Allen-Hernandez race too close to call

Reporter Kevin Parrish just now spoke with San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters Austin Erdman about several election-related topics, including Stockton Unified’s tightly-contested Area 1 race between incumbent Gloria Allen and challenger Monica Hernandez. Allen holds a 1,640-1,600 lead at the moment.

It may be four weeks until we know the winner, Erdman said. Here are some numbers from Erdman via Parrish:

The Registrar has 28 days to count 17,000 provisional ballots countywide. Additionally, 28,000 mail-in ballots countywide were dropped off by voters yesterday, and those also have not yet been counted — and might not be until the end of next week.

So that’s 45,000 uncounted ballots around the county. How many of those are from Area 1 in south Stockton is not known, but Erdman said it’s way too soon to be calling a race with a 40-vote margin.

Here’s my own unscientific number crunching:

As of right now, 3,256 votes have been counted in Area 1: the votes for Allen and Hernandez, plus 16 votes for write-in candidates.

In 2008, when Allen won her first term, a total of 5,126 votes were cast in Area 1. If the same number have been cast this year, that means 1,870 votes have yet to be counted in Area 1.

Let’s say Hernandez receives 955 of those as-yet uncounted votes and Allen gets 915 (and there are no more write-ins). That would mean a flatfooted tie.┬áMore significantly, it means that Hernandez needs barely more than 50 percent of the uncounted votes to catch Allen.

The bottom line: This looks like it’s going to take awhile.

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