Could SUSD Area 3, Area 4 still flip?

As noted earlier, the SUSD Area 1 race between Gloria Allen and Monica Hernandez is too close to call.

Could that also be the case in the other two SUSD board races?

Though I do not profess to be Nate Silver, my math says it’s unlikely.

In Area 3, challenger Kathy Garcia leads incumbent Jose Morales, 1,653-1,237. A total of 2,907 votes have been counted in that race. In 2008, when Morales won, a total of 4,619 votes were cast in Area 3. If it turns out the exact same number of votes ultimately are counted this year in Area 3, that means 1,712 votes have yet to be counted. For Morales to tie Garcia, he would need 1,064 of the uncounted votes — 62 percent. That’s a steep hill.

In Area 4,┬áchallenger Colleen Keenan ┬áleads incumbent Angel Jimenez, 3,107-2,707. A total of 5,842 votes have been counted so far in the Area 4 race. In 2008, a total of 8,243 votes were cast in Area 4. If it turns out the exact same number of votes ultimately are counted this year in Area 4, that means 2,401 votes have yet to be counted. For Jimenez to overturn Keenan’s lead, he would need 1,401 of the uncounted votes — 58 percent. It’s not as steep a challenge as Morales faces, but Jimenez’s path also appears difficult.

Of course, the exact same number of votes will not be cast this year as were cast in 2008 in the two areas. Still, logic says Garcia and Keenan should feel reasonably safe — certainly safer than Allen.

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