Blog Author
Stephen Roberson
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Why No. 2?
How does this happen? I’ve lost count how many times I’ve answered that question over the past week.
Here’s the deal: St. Mary’s is No. 1 in the country according to USA Today and the MaxPreps Xcellent 25, and No. 2 nationally according to the Freeman Rankings (also published on MaxPreps.com). So how can the best overall team in the country regardless of division be the second best Division III team in the section?
Oddly enough, there is an explanation. The section’s power rankings are based on a formula that removes human subjectivity. No system is perfect, but the section’s is, honestly, pretty good most of the time. But as is the case with any system, there are shortcomings. In the case of the Rams, it’s their league record playing havoc with the formula.
The power rating places an emphasis on league games, as it should. For the past two seasons, St. Mary’s has played an abbreviated Tri-City Athletic League schedule. Seventy-five point blowouts serve no purpose. They do nothing for a St. Mary’s team fighting for state championships every year, and they do nothing for the other TCAL teams. So now the Rams only play the other conference teams once a year (all others play each of the conference schools twice).
No. 1 Del Oro is 8-0 in the Sierra Foothill League. St. Mary’s is 4-0 in the TCAL. Those extra conference games earn the Golden Eagles additional rating points, and those rating points tell the computer the Golden Eagles are better (and by a relatively substantial ratings margin, 7.767 to 7.230).
It’s not a snub, and it makes no difference!
I doubt anyone believes Del Oro is the better team, at least anyone with any real knowledge of the section basketball scene. And yes, that includes the folks in Loomis.
The top 16 teams in each division, based exclusively on power ratings, advance to the playoffs. The top eight teams earn a first-round home game, and the top four are guanteed second-round (or quarterfinal) home games as well. After that the tournament moves to a neutral site, Cosumnes River College for the semis, Arco Arena for the finals. So while a drop from No. 8 to No. 9 or No. 4 to No. 5 can be devestating, falling to No. 2 only means the Rams will be wearing green uniforms in the section finals rather than white. That’s it. Once the section tournament has concluded, the two finalists advance to the NorCal Tournament, which is seeded by people, not computers.